Political exclusion creates cause for armed conflict in Somalia,By,Mr. Mohamud M Uluso.

(10-06-2009) The portrayal of the Transitional Federal Unity Government of Somalia (TFUG) as legitimate government and the Opposition groups- former comrades in liberation- as Radical Islamists/Spoilers has predictably plunged Somalia into internecine violence and belittled the liberation struggle against the Ethiopian occupation. TFUG lacks all preconditions for legitimacy and the opposition’s obvious fate is marginalization, exclusion and persecution in the current political arrangement. The unfortunate corollary is armed conflict. The use of TFUG as bulwark to the advent of Islamists is counterproductive, ineffective and costly.

Currently, President Sheikh Sharif Sh. Ahmed who used to deliver public speeches everywhere in Mogadishu in 2006, is either secluded in the Presidential Palace under AMISOM protection or outside the country. Ironically, he has disclosed that 95 % of the opposition forces do not have Islamic knowledge, a confession that raises personal and broader questions.

In the face of inevitable withdrawal from Somalia and change of TFG Leadership, Ethiopia demanded an honorable departure which meant deployment of UN stabilization force or groom of loyal leaders committed to the continuation of Ethiopia’s domination strategy. Accordingly, The Special Representative of the UN Secretary General (SRSG) Ahmedou Ould-Abdalla fashioned the deceptive Djibouti process to comply with the Ethiopian demand rather than addressing the complexities of Somali Conflict.

To make matters worse, the UN SRSG raises quite frequently the issue of impunity, but in the same breath he dismisses the identification, dismissal and investigation of Ethiopian/TFG officials accused of human rights abuses and war crimes. He displays his irritation towards Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, Refugees International and others for their legitimate concern over the formation of TFUG security forces before creditable oversight and accountability mechanism is in place. SRGS mocks the Media and accuses others for using Somalia as case study while many believe that he himself trampled on the dignity, rights, trust, sincerity and legitimate concerns of many Somalis and foreigners. However, despite higgledy-piggledy actions of his envoy and Ethiopian pressure, it seems the UN Secretary General favors genuine process owned by the Somali people. 

The catastrophic consequences of Djibouti process are now in full display. Religious, clan and factional fighting are raging throughout South and Central Somalia. Thousands and thousands of young Somalis are trained inside and outside Somalia for violence with large supply of weapons increased by the lifting of arms embargo on TFUG. Furthermore, six Members of Transitional Federal Parliament who are from Puntland and Somaliland led by Ismail Mohamoud Hurreh and Hassan Abshir Farah  have proposed to the UN SRSG the formation of  a Northern Option Strategy (NOS) -Somaliland and Puntalnd Military Front-  to counter the Islamists in anticipation of the latter taking over South-Central  Somalia.

As part of its traditional oppressive policy, Ethiopia championed IGAD resolution to put blockade and no fly zone on ports and airports used principally by the humanitarian agencies to starve the entire population of South Central regions and force mass exodus of refugees. The International Community should oppose such cruel policy and should help and protect innocent civilians. 

Pierre Englebert argued that the absence of checks and balances which accompanies state failure provides opportunities to privately appropriate public resources, a necessary condition for personal rule function. TFUG’s behavior in the past four months proves its dysfunctional and corruptive character: Some examples are:

1.Outsourcing State functions and National Sovereignty like revenue collection to Kenyan Government, policy formulation to UN and Ethiopia, and passport service to foreign agent. 

2.Signing fraudulent Memorandum of Understanding on “Maritime dispute” with Kenyan Government under baseless and false justification.

3.Transitional Federal Parliament became idle as a result of  “Djibouti” deals and insecurity.

4.Declaration of war that completely defies the provisions of the Transitional Federal Charter (TFC) which defines TFUG’s sole mission as reconciliation and peace building among its clan-based constituents. The weeks-long skirmishes in Mogadishu Yaqshid District, the President and Prime Minister’s appeal for international intervention, and the return of Ethiopian military inside Somalia demonstrate TFUG’s inability to function, govern and win a war.

5.Unprecedented appeal to the International Community for resources on issues over which it does not have control such as the piracy in “Puntland State”.

6.Preparation of National Constitution without prior public consultation and deliberations.

7.Lack of transparency and accountability for its operations and public resources management.

8.Recruitment, appointment and promotion of officials made without legal procedures and public awareness. TFUG employment is based on favoritism, nepotism and personal loyalty.

9.Unlawful formation and use of un-vetted security forces. Minister of National Security entered Hiiran Region from Ethiopia with Militia forces of unknown nationality. Former security forces and other TFG officials tainted by accusations of human rights abuses are still on Government payroll.

10.Printing new currency to defraud the public and create hyperinflation.

A determinant factor in the Somali political crisis is the US Administration response in consideration of the humanitarian disaster and chaos that resulted from the 2004-2009 catastrophic sequence of events it has supported. The events substantiate Fareed Zakaria’s claim that “in Bush administration’s original view, all Islamist groups were one and the same; any distinctions or nuances were regarded as a form of appeasement. If they weren’t terrorists themselves, they were probably harboring terrorists”.

Under the pretext of killing or capturing three wanted foreign terrorist operatives (Sudanese, Kenyan and Comoros) US Government supported the Warlords’ Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism (ARPACT) and then the Ethiopian invasion-occupation which caused unimaginable death, displacement and devastation. Bush Administration designated Al Shabab and its leaders as a terrorist organization. Al Shabab claimed link with Al Qaeda, an international terrorist organization. This meant that Somalis of ages between 17 and 40 are potential or suspected terrorists.

Those events have produced far reaching consequences and multiplied threats to the point in which American youths of Somali origin travelled to Somalia for joining the fighting. Now the drumbeat is about the presence of 300 to 400 foreign fighters in Somalia in order to justify new Ethiopian invasion and US military intervention in support of dysfunctional Government. The execution of US war on terror in alliance with Ethiopian domination strategy has deepened the Somali crisis. Clearly, Obama Administration faces serious challenges in developing new strategy.

In conclusion, Somali people never benefitted from the large body of knowledge and lessons learned for conflict resolutions and state building during the last quarter of the 20th century.  The United Nations Political Office for Somalia (UNPOS) has been the first office established in April 15, 1995 and has a major share in the failure of Somali State Building.

While the urgent step is to achieve ceasefire throughout South Central Somalia, open dialogue for a new framework of Somali State-building must take place at all levels-International, National and Local. 

By,Mr. Mohamud M Uluso
mohamuduluso@gmail.com

· admin on June 10 2009 13:09:54 · Print


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